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第43回GCOE-ARSセミナー
43rd GCOE-ARS Seminar

 

下記の内容で第43回GCOE-ARSセミナーを開催しました。

We held the 43rd GCOE-ARS Seminar with the following contents.

 

日時/Date: 2013年10月22日(火) 15:00-17:30
October 22 (Tue), 2013 15:00-17:30
場所/Place: 京都大学北部キャンパス益川ホール
Maskawa Hall in the North Campus, Kyoto U.

 

講師/Lecturer 1:

Professor Michael Ghil

(ENS, France / UCLA, USA)

題目/Title:

Weather and climate: Deterministic or stochastic?

気象と気候: 決定論的か確率論的か?

要旨/Abstract:

The atmosphere, ocean, and other components of the climate system behave in a fairly irregular way. A major surprise of the late 20th century was the realization that such behavior could be produced by natural systems with a small number of degrees of freedom, governed by fully deterministic, but nonlinear laws. Still, the the climate system has a large number of degrees of freedom, and ample room for random factors to intervene. Can we reconcile a low-order, deterministically nonlinear description of weather or climate with a high-order, possibly linear but random one? This talk will present some steps on the road to such a "grand unification," and implications for predictability will be discussed.

 

講師/Lecturer 2:

Professor Tim Palmer

(U. Oxford, UK)

題目/Title:

Predicting climate in a chaotic world. How certain can we be?

カオス世界での気候予測: どこまで確実にできるか?

要旨/Abstract:

Why are predictions of tomorrow's weather sometimes wrong? And if short-range weather predictions can go wrong, how can we have confidence in predictions of climate decades into the future? In this lecture I will outline the similarities and differences between weather and climate prediction, I will discuss the origin of uncertainties in weather and climate prediction, and I will describe the development of probabilistic prediction tools which try to estimate the impact of these uncertainties. I will conclude by asking whether manmade climate change is something we should believe in.

 

ポスターはこちらをご覧ください。

 

問い合わせ先/Contact: GCOE-ARS事務局 secretariat@ars.gcoe.kyoto‐u.ac.jp

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