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講演・特別講義
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防災研究所GCOEセミナー

日 時:2009年8月4日(火)9:30 a.m. ~11:15 a.m.

場 所:防災研究所 所長室(E-320D)

 

9:30-10:00 Kaoru Takara (Professor, DPRI), GCOE Project Leader

"Outline of a new Global COE Program: Sustainability Science for

Resilient SocietyAdaptable to Extreme Weather Conditions"

 

10:00-11:15 Van-Than-Van Nguyen (Professor, McGill University, Canada), Adjunct Professor, DPRI

"Some Advances in Downscaling Methods for Climate-Related Impact and Adaptation Studies"

 

Abstract: This presentation provides an overview of various downscaling methods that could be used for assessing the potential impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological regime. In general, two broad categories of these downscaling procedures currently exist: dynamical downscaling (DD) techniques, involving the extraction of regional scale information from large-scale circulation data based on the modeling of regional climate dynamical processes, and statistical (or empirical) downscaling (SD) procedures that relied on the empirical relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and surface environment parameters. While neither DD methods nor SD methods were found to outperform the other, the SD techniques have several practical advantages. Hence, an evaluation of some popular SD techniques (e.g., the SDSM method) has been carried out to assess their feasibility in the simulation of two fundamental hydrologic processes: daily precipitation time series and daily temperature extremes using data from Canada and from other countries in Asia. In addition, a spatial-temporal SD method was developed to describe the linkage between large-scale daily climate predictors with sub-daily local extreme rainfalls; especially for the development of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency relations for current as well as for future periods under different climate change scenarios. Results of the evaluation using available climate data in regions with different climatic conditions have indicated the feasibility and uncertainty of the different methods under consideration.

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